This is usually a brief connection problem.
Every Propertiz lead starts as a public record — a foreclosure filing, a judgment, a tax-deed sale. Here is exactly where that data comes from, how we tie it to the right house, how we rank owners, and how often our predictions turn out right. No black boxes.
We read the county's public records directly — no resold lists. Today that covers 405,735 parcels in Duval County, 2,947 open distress signals, and 508 leads that pass the standard buy box (plus 62 bank-owned homes).
Values come from recent comparable sales in the same zip, rents from HUD's Small Area Fair Market Rents, flood zones from FEMA, and neighborhood figures from the U.S. Census ACS 2024 5-year.
Most court filings don't list a parcel number. We tie each one to a property by trying, in order: the parcel number if it's printed, the street address, the legal description (lot, block and subdivision), and finally the owner's name — only when that name owns exactly one property. If none of those gives exactly one answer, the record waits for a person to review it. A false match is worse than a miss: mailing the wrong owner about a foreclosure is the one mistake we work hardest to avoid.
46 more sources in our other counties; pick one in the county menu to see its own.
Equity is what makes a distressed owner able to sell at a discount and still walk away with cash, so we work hard to get it right. In this county we read every mortgage recorded against a property in the Clerk's Official Records (the lender, the amount and the date) and pair it with its recorded satisfaction, the release filed when a loan is paid off. Loans without a satisfaction are treated as open.
A lead is a property with at least one active distress signal that also fits your buy box. Owner traits on their own never make a lead — they only add points. Newer filings count more, and later stages replace earlier ones (a judgment replaces the filing it came from).
| Distress signal | Points | How it fades |
|---|---|---|
| Foreclosure filed (lis pendens)halves every 120 days · ignored after 540 days | 30 | halves every 120 days · ignored after 540 days |
| Foreclosure judgmentfull points until the sale date, then dropped · ignored after 365 days | 20 | full points until the sale date, then dropped · ignored after 365 days |
| Foreclosure sale scheduledfull points until the sale date, then dropped | 20 | full points until the sale date, then dropped |
| Notice of default (non-judicial foreclosure)halves every 120 days · ignored after 365 days | 30 | halves every 120 days · ignored after 365 days |
| Trustee sale notice (non-judicial foreclosure)full points until the sale date, then dropped · ignored after 120 days |
We looked back at 1,645 past distress filings and checked which owners sold within 6 months. Of owners the model ranked in the top 10%, 15% sold within 6 months — versus 4% overall (3.3× more likely), measured on the filings the model was trained on. Another 3% lost the home to the lender.
Deciles of predicted probability, highest first. Well calibrated = the pairs match.
Honest limits: "sold" means a recorded arm's-length sale, so deals that close later, quitclaims and short sales still in progress count as "not sold". The past is not a promise — a changing market can shift these rates. These are checks on past filings, not yet a forward test that trains on older filings and scores newer ones. Any check needs recorded sale prices and months of follow-up after each filing, so the history so far comes from our first counties; the newer counties are still building theirs.
Every lead shows the reasons behind its score, so you can check our work house by house.
Data updated Oct 22.
| 20 |
| full points until the sale date, then dropped · ignored after 120 days |
| Tax-deed applicationfull points until the sale date, then dropped | 30 | full points until the sale date, then dropped |
| Tax-deed sale scheduledfull points until the sale date, then dropped | 30 | full points until the sale date, then dropped |
| Unpaid property taxes, 2+ yearsno decay | 20 | no decay |
| Unpaid property taxes, 1 yearno decay | 8 | no decay |
| Open code violationhalves every 180 days · max 25 points | 10 | halves every 180 days · max 25 points |
| Condition survey: major repairhalves every 365 days · max 4 points · adds points, never makes a lead on its own | 4 | halves every 365 days · max 4 points · adds points, never makes a lead on its own |
| Code-enforcement lienno decay | 15 | no decay |
| Eviction filed by the landlordhalves every 180 days · ignored after 365 days · max 16 points | 8 | halves every 180 days · ignored after 365 days · max 16 points |
| Probate (owner passed away)halves every 365 days | 20 | halves every 365 days |
Tiers are ranked within the buy box you're looking through, so "A" means the top of your area and criteria.
Bank-owned homes are a separate list: a lender taking title scores 30 points, fading by half every 90 days.